TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 3
Typhoon #PepitoPH (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 15 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data at 630 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.6°N, 131.5°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2
VISAYAS:
The eastern portion of Northern Samar (Mapanas, Gamay, Palapag, Lapinig), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad, Maslog)
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No.1
LUZON:
The southeastern portion of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate
VISAYAS:
The rest of Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 37 issued at 11 AM today for three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 3.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of southeastern Quezon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, northern Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and northern Biliran. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 2 issued at 8:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Currently, there is no gale warning hoisted over the coastal waters of the country due to PEPITO.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 8.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar and Northern Samar
• Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboard of Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsoogon; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes
• Up to 3.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; the eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands and Siargao Islands.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Babuyan Islands and Surigao del Sur.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte, mainland Cagayan, Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands; the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental.
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley; the seaboards of Aurora, northern Quezon, Masbate, Biliran, and Samar; the remaining seaboard of Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar; the northern and eastern seaboards of Leyte.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next five days. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tomorrow (16 November) evening or on Sunday (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar tomorrow afternoon or evening, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening remains not ruled out.
• Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday (18 November) morning.
• Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall tomorrow evening or on Sunday early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur on Sunday as PEPITO passes over landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and may only be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
Source: DOST-PAGASA
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