TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 14 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “MANYI” HAS ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND WAS GIVEN THE LOCAL NAME “PEPITO”.
Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO was estimated based on all available data at 945 km East of Eastern Visayas (10.5°N, 134.4°E).
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement
Westward at 35 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
Catanduanes, The eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Presentacion, San Jose, Lagonoy), the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Legazpi City, Malinao, Manito, Tiwi), and the eastern and southern portions of Sorsogon (Juban, City of Sorsogon, Barcelona, Bulusan, Magallanes, Gubat, Santa Magdalena, Casiguran, Bulan, Irosin, Matnog, Prieto Diaz)
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad, Maslog, Dolores, Oras), and the northeastern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
PEPITO is forecast to intensify into a typhoon tomorrow (15 November). This tropical cyclone may reach super typhoon category by Saturday (16 November) afternoon or evening and may possibly make landfall at peak intensity. Due to land interaction, it may weaken into a typhoon by Sunday evening until it exits the PAR region.
Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards and due to the shifting track forecast of PEPITO, most areas in Luzon and Eastern Visayas are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from PEPITO which may cause considerable impacts.
Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, PEPITO is forecast to move westward over the next 24 hours before turning west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea while passing close to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. On the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall over the eastern coast of Central Luzon during the weekend (16 or 17 November). It must be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 3rd and 4th day of the forecast track. Therefore, the landfall point may also shift within the range of the forecast confidence cone from the eastern coast of Central Luzon to the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas. This tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (18 November).
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